How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Determinantes da estrutura de capitais do sector bancário português

Este estudo tem como objectivo analisar quais os factores que determinam a estrutura de capitais do sector bancário Português. Com o intuito de atingir o objectivo e assumindo a existência de uma estrutura óptima de capitais, recorrer-se-á ao modelo de regressão linear múltipla para verificar a aderência do processo de decisão às teorias acerca da estrutura de capitais, bem como quais dos factores analisados a afectarão significativamente. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a rendibilidade, a dimensão, o risco e a tangibilidade são os principais determinantes da estrutura de capitais do sector bancário português. ABSTRACT: The main aim for this study is to verify which determinants influence the Portuguese bank's capital structure. ln order to achieve the above mentioned aim and assuming an optimal capital structure, we will apply a multiple linear regression model with the purpose of proving the capital structure theories existence and to observe which determinants influence it. The obtained results mention that profitability, size, risk and tangibility are the principal determinants of Portuguese bank's capital structure.

QUANTIFICATION OF CALCIUM IN SPARKLING WINES BY INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY

Markets are increasingly competitive and the companies feel the urge to improve their manufacturing processes. Blending that with a larger control of quality and safety it was created a need to develop new methods of analysis each time more accurate, faster and with lower costs. Alentejo is a region with a wide variety of soils, most of them are rich in calcium and potassium. In the production of sparkling wine many wineries use encapsulated yeast in alginate beads, instead of the traditional method, champenoise. The first method is faster, allowing a more versatile production, reducing the risk of contamination and features organoleptic characteristics similar to the traditional method (yeast free). However, encapsulated yeast spheres should be only used if the base wine matches a number of features, among them calcium content. In this study the calcium content in the wine was determined by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) and by near-infrared spectroscopy. The AAS is a high sensitivity method clearly produces a reliable result, however it is very time consuming and produces great quantities of environmental waste, therefore the possibility of using near-infrared spectroscopy as a method was studied to be a fast, simple and clean alternative to the AAS. It was obtained a calibration model with a variation coefficient higher than 0.80 which indicates that the near-infrared spectroscopy as an adequately alternative the ASS.